Global Change
F06
Kerry Woods
More than at any other time in the history of human civilization, we can’t project where we are heading by looking at where we have been. Why is our time unique? We are already experiencing measurable climate change, and best estimates suggest that, within the next century, the world will experience climates warmer than any since the evolution of humans. Our lifestyles are profoundly dependent on a fossil fuel resource (now about half depleted), whose combustion is responsible for these changes. Human population is increasing at a rate that will double current population in a generation, contributing to massively accelerated extinction (perhaps, now, a species every few minutes), wholesale rearrangement of ecosystem function, and regional collapses in productivity of agricultural systems and fisheries. Because these trends and conditions are without precedent, our estimates of trajectories and effects are inherently uncertain. But social and economic structures are embedded in and dependent on these global systems; changes in their dynamics will affect us, potentially in massive ways. What are the likely (or worst-case) consequences for human welfare and futures? Is anticipated climate change a threat to security (national or global, social or economic)? Can democratic institutions respond effectively to long-term threats to the sustainability of human societies? To the uncertainty of our understanding? We will explore the necessary conceptual background, in a variety of fields, to understand issues of global environmental change.